Blair braced for revolt

Tony Blair today appeared to have headed off the threat of the Commons rebellion against war with Iraq reaching "meltdown" proportions.

Rebel leaders admitted they were unlikely to get more than 150 Labour backbenchers voting against the Government in the emergency debate expected tomorrow.

While that would still be the biggest ever revolt recorded against any government, it would fall short of some of the doom-laden predictions made before weekend.

But the Commons arithmetic would be transformed, said senior MPs, if Robin Cook and Clare Short resign before the vote is held.

One said: "A statesmanlike speech by Robin Cook attacking George Bush's handling of this affair would create a flood of new rebels."

In the last vote a fortnight ago 122 Labour MPs joined the revolt. Until today, rebel organisers were predicting that the number would rise to between 150 and 180 if war began without United Nations backing.

Today, however, several rebels admitted that target was unlikely. One said the whips had successfully persuaded previous rebels to toe the line by warning that Mr Blair could be fatally wounded if the revolt escalated too high.

If the rebellion snowballs over the 200 mark - which is very unlikely - Tony Blair's future as Prime Minister would be in doubt.

But if their rebel numbers can be held down below 125, Mr Blair would be seen to have got away lightly. One rebel organiser admitted it was "possible" that under 122 would vote against Mr Blair.

There are 411 Labour MPs and each will be under a three-line whip to support Mr Blair. Small groups identified as waverers will be invited to personal briefings by Mr Blair in the hope of winning them over.

Others will be subject to flattery or threats by whips.

Chris Smith, the former Cabinet minister leading the revolt, is draftinga motion saying the war lacks "moral authority".

These are the key numbers which will decide how seriously the Prime Minister could be damaged by backbench revolt.

100 or fewer: a huge revolt by any previous standards, but much smaller than expected and would be seen as a huge success for Tony Blair.

122: the same number of rebels as a fortnight ago, itself a record. A terrible result yet, after all the build-up, it would be seen as a triumph for Mr Blair. His leadership would be intact and his hand strengthened for a Cabinet clear-out.

132: at this point more than half of Labour backbenchers would have flowed through the No lobby. A blow to Mr Blair, since it would mean he had lost the backing of a majority of those Labour MPs who do not have jobs in the Government. But it would also be a disappointment for rebels, who have privately predicted many more will join them.

150: the lowest number predicted by rebel leaders. It would give Mr Blair a bloody nose. If followed by high British casualties in the war, he could then look vulnerable.

173: roughly the point, depending on how many abstain, where Mr Blair would have to fall back on the support of the Conservatives to scrape through. A humiliating setback and the Premier would be praying for a swift war with low casualties on both sides to remain stable.

206: meltdown. More than half the entire Parliamentary party, including ministers, would have voted against the Government. Mr Blair could claim a technical win in the Commons, providing the Tories held firm, but it would be a hollow victory and his premiership would begin to look fragile.