Bad news for IDS

Tony Blair faces a far rougher party conference than he could have expected before the Liberal Democrats' stunning victory in Brent East.

Until yesterday, Labour had retained every by-election seat it had defended since Mr Blair entered Downing Street. No previous government had lasted so long without a single by-election reverse. This makes the loss of Brent East all the more remarkable. At the last election, it was Labour's 58th safest seat.

The collapse in Labour's vote, from almost 24,000 in 1997 to only 7,040 last night, compares with the hammering the Conservatives suffered in the

more sensational by-elections of the Thatcher and Major years.

Brent's voters have confirmed what the opinion polls have been saying for some months: the present government is in deep trouble. The rows over the Iraq war have played their part, especially among Muslim voters, but polls show Mr Blair started losing the trust of voters more than a year ago. He and his ministers were seen to be failing to deliver their promises of better public services. His critics are bound to say he has lost touch with many of Labour's traditional supporters. He will be hard pressed to quarrel with that verdict.

But Sarah Teather's victory is just as bad for Iain Duncan Smith. It shows that voters will do all they can to punish Labour - except vote Conservative. The Tory candidate, Uma Fernandes, came a bad third.

The Conservatives' defence was that Brent East is not natural Tory territory. True enough; but neither was Walthamstow in 1967, Oldham in 1968, Walsall in 1976 or Ashfield in 1977. Yet these normally safe Labour seats were all captured by the Tories in bouts of mid-term unpopularity for the Wilson and Callaghan administrations.

Yesterday, at the very least, the Conservatives should have shown the Lib-Dems a clean pair of electoral heels and run Labour a close second. To slide to a bad third can give Mr Duncan Smith no comfort, and will do nothing to discourage those Tory MPs who harbour hopes of replacing him.

Today Charles Kennedy is celebrating a remarkable triumph. But he knows he must defy history if Brent East is to prove a launchpad for a lasting national surge.