Analysis: Hung parliament should come as no surprise

The biggest surprise in this election isn't the prospect of a hung parliament. There were 91 opinion polls during the election.

All, every one, showed that Britain was headed for a hung parliament. And now, with over 500 seats decided, it is clear that this will be the will of the public as expressed both in the number of seats in the Commons

And in the popular vote. It is likely that the Conservatives will have nearly two million more votes than Labour when the counting is over.

The big surprise was that the result shows that the Liberal Democrats' bubble has burst Their share of the popular vote will be about where it was in 2005, and they will end up with even fewer MPs. The exclusive Ipsos MORI poll in yesterday's Standard sent three clear signals that this outcome might have been expected.

Among young people, there was lower support for Liberal Democrats than recognised. Fewer Liberal Democratic Party supporters said that it was important to them that their party won the election. More Lib Dem supporters said that there was a chance they might change their mind before they voted. And they did.

So what now? Gordon Brown wants to stay Prime Minister. No surprise there. But his numbers don't add up. If the number of Labour MPs is around 260, and the Liberal Democrats is around 55, that gets their compact', not likely to be a coalition, to 315. Sein Fein MPs don't vote, so the majority magic number' isn't 326, more likely 321, so they would be only six seats short.

They will likely get at least a couple of the others' including the new Green Party MP, but where will the other others' jump? Possibly they might get over the magic number, but would be their terms? And would it be stable? Unlikely.

And what about Nick Clegg's statement during the campaign? "Whichever party has the strongest mandate from the British people it seems to me they have the first right to try and govern either on their own or with others."

It is already clear, no matter the fudging going on today, that on those terms, his own, any deal the Liberal Democrats do will have to be with David Cameron, on either the test of the number of MPs or the popular vote.

But is this possible, given the demands of the Liberal Democrats for changing the voting system to proportional representation? Unlikely that the Tories would agree. So would Brown? Like a shot, at least to the system of Alternative Transferable Vote, already offered up for a referendum of the British people.

And many past polls say they would. 2010 legacy? A constitutional revolution in prospect. Then the Liberal Democrats may have lost the battle, but won the war.

Sir Robert Worcester is founder of MORI