Allies still have to tackle al Qaeda

With the fall of Kabul, events on the ground in Afghanistan are moving ahead of any plans by the international community for the country. As the Northern Alliance takes up residence once more in the capital, there is no prospect in sight of a stable government.

For the Western partnership, led by America and Britain, there must be some relief that the latest turn of events will mean they do not have to think about putting a large force on the ground in Afghanistan to crack the Taliban-al Qaeda partnership.

Military planners were beginning to face the real prospect of preparing an operation which in its way would have been as complex as Desert Storm in the Gulf War. But with Desert Storm 2 - as the project was known - postponed indefinitely, America and its partners still have to tackle the worldwide terror network of al Qaeda and its allies.

That will be a long and difficult campaign, and more covert than overt. But already there is a real sense of achievement in the freezing of assets and funds of the terror groups, their front organisations and affiliates.

The collapse of the Taliban forces in and around Kabul was swift and unexpected. Until the end of last week they were putting up steady fire from their various positions in the villages round Bagram, some 20 miles to the north. Last week Dohar television showed scenes of jubilant Taliban fighters coming back from positions to the north for rest and recreation, shouting that the Americans could send all the B52s they want, but the Taliban would continue to resist.

Late yesterday the Taliban commanders posted a ring of T55 and T62 tanks on the rising ground beyond the northern suburbs preparing to counter-attack the latest incursions of the Northern Alliance. Within hours they had gone, leaving their positions and then abandoning the city. The Taliban made no attempt to defend it. Only a few desperate Arab fighters of Bin Laden's al Qaeda network appear to have attempted a last stand - and their bodies now litter the streets.

The sudden flight of the Taliban typifies the strangely fluid nature of war in Afghanistan. It is almost an exaggeration to describe it in terms of a front and lines, fixed defences and organised armies - the military terminology the Western world has adopted from the trench warfare of the First World War. It is more a game of opportunity, trades mixed with raids, and cruel revenge. Both sides, the Taliban and Northern Alliance, appear to be short of ammunition and fuel. Both appear to have little grasp of the skills of command in battle and tactics. The Northern Alliance started moving forward last week when they had US and British-led teams to co-ordinate fire from their artillery and tanks.

The lack of command and discipline are likely to be the most serious immediate problem presented by the new Northern Alliance takeover of cities such as Herat, Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul itself.

Already the UN has been receiving reports of atrocities, looting of UN warehouses, revenge and summary executions in the streets of Mazar. The Tajik forces now commanded by Mohammad Fahim, successor to Ahmad Shah Masood, have trained a force of 1,000 paramilitary police to control Kabul - but keeping control of the sprawling ruin of a city with more than two million desperate inhabitantsseems close to a mission impossible. An urgent question now for America and its allies is the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden and his immediate lieutenants, and the potential for revenge attacks by al Qaeda.

US intelligence assessments in recent weeks have been consistent in suggesting that less than 10 per cent of the strength of al Qaeda has been with Bin Laden and his ragbag cohort of fighters in Afghanistan. Their strength is spread across the world, controlled by different operational commands in North America and Europe. The main training centres for guerrillas and terrorists are believed to have switched to countries such as Somalia and Yemen weeks ago.

America and close allies like Britain in the anti- terrorist alliance are now faced with almost the worst dilemma - a retreating and vengeful Taliban and al Qaeda, and a huge political void in Kabul. Despite the rhetoric about broadbased coalition governments, the international community, including the UN as well as America and its coalition partners, have not managed to put together a formula for a post-Taliban regime.

This must now be a priority for the UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, who has a strong record in tackling such thorny matters, and colleagues and supporters including Tony Blair's special representative, Robert Cooper.

But real political and strategic planning appears to have lagged behind the rhetoric in both Britain and America. An emergency humanitarian plan and temporary stabilisation programme are now an urgent necessity. Otherwise Afghanistan will be tipped once more into a political void - and this always brings yet another cycle of blood, misery and vengeance.