A madman who massacres his own people

Arab dictators and their offspring are not known for telling the truth. But when Muammar Gaddafi's favoured second son, Saif El-Islam, went on television to declare that his father would "fight until the last man, the last woman, the last bullet" to stay in power, we can be certain he meant every word.

There are crucial differences between Gaddafi and other Arab tyrants such as Tunisian strongman Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak. Both were figurehead leaders: Mubarak was controlled by the Egyptian army and Ben Ali was part of a vast bureaucracy that could continue to exist independently of him. Ultimately, they were expendable and both were forced to step down to avoid massive bloodshed.

But Gaddafi is Libya. He exercises total control through his cult of personality and murderous private militias that he funds by selling off the country's oil to Western companies, including BP. There is no power, other than people power, that could force him to quit voluntarily.

Moreover, he is a madman, and one with a history of massacring his own people. He had more than 1,200 political prisoners slaughtered at Tripoli's notorious Abu Salim prison in 1996. Neither Ben Ali nor Mubarak were capable of such brutality.

And Gaddafi simply has nowhere to run. Mubarak retreated to a seaside presidential palace, under the protection of the army. Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia.

But the Libyan dictator's wild diplomacy has left him without Arab friends. In 2002 he was famously involved in a public slanging match with Saudi King Abdullah at an Arab League summit.

No other Arab regime, or country outside the region, would conceivably offer him sanctuary. Perhaps he will have to fall back on the hospitality of his old friend Tony Blair. I wonder if Cherie will welcome him to Connaught Square?

If Gaddafi falls, it will be because the army has abandoned him or itself been overpowered by the masses.

"Libya is not Tunisia or Egypt," Saif El-Islam declared yesterday. The words are chillingly accurate and the Arab world may be about to witness its bloodiest uprising in modern times.

John RBradley is the author of Inside Egypt: The Land of the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolution