A bold start

With the unexpected launch of a relatively small number of cruise missiles and dedicated strikes by stealth bombers, Iraq has finally moved from the more comfortable world of diplomacy to the uncertainties of war. American and British commanders have to deliver results very quickly. An opportunity to eliminate the leadership by a carefully-targeted strike was too good to miss, but it would have been very lucky if it had been successful. The US has been trying to track Saddam Hussein's location for years, and this attack raises the question of how they thought that they had got lucky at such a critical moment.

The American surveillance of Iraq from space is continuous. The radio, telephone and data transmission traffic will be intense as Iraq redeploys for war. It may be that signals intelligence was able to build up a picture of where all the electronic noise was coming from. Or perhaps it was a human intelligence source. As the defeat of Iraq comes closer, there will be more senior members of the regime looking to prepare for their own futures in a post-Saddam world.

Whatever the source of the intelligence, the attack appears not to have been successful in its aim to decapitate the leadership. Now it is back to the original plan, which will take longer. The Pentagon civilian planners believe that a concentration of devastating air attacks will be needed to demoralise the Iraqi military, and that they will then rush to surrender. Others, mainly in the military, worry that it takes time, as well as overwhelming force, to grind down an enemy's morale.

Our troops have positioned themselves well forward at the border between Iraq and Kuwait, and are ready for the off as soon as the main attacks start. It is a long road to Baghdad, and not helped by the single point of entry through Kuwait. Few expect much resistance in the open country in the south. Saddam is well aware of how quickly the US air force can gain supremacy. Early cruise missile attacks will destroy the main elements of the Iraqi air defence system. They will also seek to cut the communications between the leadership and the provinces. This may be difficult given the buried fibre optic cable connections that the Iraqi military use.

As yet, there is no indication of Saddam's counter-moves. He has built a defensive position in Baghdad, but he has many options to try to slow the advance of the British and American troops. While he may order Iraqi units to attack the advancing armour, this will do little except accelerate the rate of surrender by his conscripts. The surrendering may slow our advance as thousands of combatants suddenly have to be treated as prisoners of war. Given the overwhelming military superiority of US and UK forces, he may favour less direct approaches. The torching of the oil wells is a real threat. It is simple to mine each installation. It will be a problem to capture these important assets before his engineers fire the demolition charges. He could also try to disrupt the main logistic area of Kuwait. He may decide his best hope lies in sabotage in our vulnerable points such as the shipping lanes.

Saddam's military capability is much diminished since the last Gulf war. His equipment is 12 years older, and sanctions have taken their toll. Yet the task for our forces is more difficult, too. The Rumsfeld approach to warfare means fewer troops to do the job. The diplomacy has left few options for help in the region. Iraq is far bigger than Kuwait. Saddam has no exit strategy this time. Finally, there is the worry that he may use chemical and biological weapons in a desperate last throw of the dice. The war has now begun with a surprising bold start, but no one can yet be sure when it will end.

Air Marshal Sir Timothy Garden is a former assistant chief of the defence staff, and is now a visiting professor at the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College London.