54,000 migrants to come to Britain

Some 54,000 immigrants will seek work in Britain within a year of their countries joining the European Union, a study by the Evening Standard estimates.

Dozens of British firms are already recruiting in east European countries, with the NHS one of the main employers set to take advantage of the new workforce which will become available when 10 countries join the EU on 1 May.

We contacted embassies for each of the new member states as well as London-based expatriate groups to gauge the numbers they expect to seek work here in the first year. Some, particularly Poland, Slovakia and Lithuania, believe tens of thousands will be attracted by high wages in the service industries and in white collar or professional jobs.

Based on their most conservative estimates, our study suggests more than 54,000 of their citizens will move to Britain - four times higher than

the Home Office's estimate which was criticised by opposition parties as little more than optimistic guesswork.

Migrant workers are needed to fill vacancies in the building industry, restaurants, hotels, food production and farming. But concerns that people may try to claim benefits and housing will heap pressure on the Government, already hit by the resignation last month of immigration minister Beverley Hughes.

The Home Office has already abandoned its estimate that only 13,000 people would move here from eastern Europe after serious doubts emerged about how that figure was arrived at.

The new EU countries will be Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Cyprus and Malta. The Lithuanian Association predicted as many as 50,000 could arrive in London - propelled from the Baltic state by mass unemployment.

Association spokesman Saulius Budinas said: "Back home there aren't enough jobs to go round. In London it isn't hard to get building work and you can earn around three or four times the amount you could in Lithuania."

The UK is seen as a magnet for migrants because it is one of only two existing EU countries where they will be free to work without a permit as soon as the union expands.

In the NHS, the nursing shortage is now so huge that hundreds of east European nurses are expected to arrive within months - boosting their salaries fourfold.

The Royal College of Nursing, which represents staff, and the Nursing and Midwifery Council, which oversees professional standards, are so concerned at the potential influx that they have held talks with recruitment firms planning to take on eastern Europeans.

Up to 200 Polish doctors are also poised to move to Britain, and in Hungary officials fear a "brain drain" as people in their twenties and thirties seek work in the UK.

In other employment sectors, recruitment agencies have targeted Slovakia and the Czech Republic as a source of cheap builders - and the number of au pairs is also predictedto increase rapidly. The Czech community in Britain has already been approached by agencies seeking new staff and looking for contacts in the country to help their search.

British industry has backed the freedom-to-work rules but remains concerned about large movements of people from eastern Europe.

A spokesman for the Confederation of British Industry said: "We must send a clear message to overseas workers that their skills are welcome here. But firms do want migration to be sensitively managed." The new arrivals are poised to take advantage of cheap deals from budget airlines and coach firms.

EasyJet expects hundreds to use new routes from Hungary and Slovenia, which will start flying as soon as the two countries officially join the European Union next month.

Additional reporting by Rachel Armstrong