Delay - or book today?

Big bargains for early bookers, nothing but a rainy week in west Wales for anyone trying to buy a family holiday at the last minute ... that's the picture trotted out year after year by travel agents and summer-holiday firms.

Do they have a point this summer, or will there be bargains aplenty come July as we reject the sunny Med for the perceived safety of British shores?

It's always a question of supply and demand. If the big summer-holiday operators have cut the number of holidays on sale, the scramble, if and when it comes, will be greater.

The crucial issue this year is that the number of holidays for sale has shrunk. The package giants, which determine the market, lost pretty much three months of selling this winter, and, as a result, slashed their programmes back by around 15 per cent. Large companies with large aircraft need early indications of how busy the market is going to be. That simply hasn't been possible post 11 September. Hence the riskreducing cuts in capacity.

Before you pull on your running shoes though, it's important to know that summer holidays are nowhere near sold out. Noel Josephides, of Greece specialist Sunvil, admits it has sold only 30 per cent of its summer holidays so far, but is confident that sales will remain steady. "What will determine prices is whether demand exceeds supply given the 15 per cent capacity cut the big companies have made," he says.

The "safe" destinations have filled up quickest, of course: particularly villas in the Algarve. A spokesman for family package company Cosmos says: "We had to pull properties from the Christmas edition of the brochure because they sold very early."

Bookings to Spain and the Balearics, traditionally the number-one summer sun route, were down by almost 30 per cent in December, according to industry sources. Menorca and Majorca are selling now. "You will still get holidays, but as usual the Balearics are booking up faster than anywhere. The Canaries sold well throughout winter and have carried on," says a source at Thomson. Ibiza is slow - the youth market books late, so there is space aplenty at the moment.

The initial slowness was due, Josephides says, to families delaying booking - not because of fear of flying, but factors such as job insecurity.

Cyprus is seriously down this year, according to Greece/ Cyprus specialist Argo Holidays, which markets four-and five-star packages: "It's really trailing, at least 20 per cent down on last year," says MD Mathilde Robert, who shifted 40,000 summer holidays there in 2001. She believes that clients, unsure of the island's proximity to Afghanistan, got cold feet. "We are looking at cutting capacity but waiting until mid-March."

Thomas Cook's tour operator JMC reports selling twice as many Greece packages last week as the same period in 2001. Cosmos is similarly optimistic: "Greece was slow but is coming back and Corfu is outperforming the other islands - 10 per cent up year on year. However, Cyprus was very badly hit. We've cut capacity." High summer availability is anticipated, discounting is not.

Sunvil still has holidays on its entire range of Greek islands, which includes Corfu, Paxos and Samos, where a fortnight from 25 July in a family unit for five at the Despina Studios in Kokkari costs £590 per person based on a family sharing, including child discounts.

Florida suffered a 20 per cent drop in sales before Christmas, hence a raft of competitive deals from giants including Thomson, which has hundreds of free child places. And a First Choice spokesman says: "We have reduced capacity by 20-30 per cent. People are waiting later than normal to book. We have an astute market, holding out for a better price."

With fewer packages and fewer buyers, if you book between now and April you will pretty much have your pick of what's in the brochures. Be aware though, that our booking habits - like voting - can be affected by something as simple as the weather.

Some travel agents are putting January's slow business down to our reluctance to get a soaking - a situation which could continue throughout this month. "The market hasn't bitten as we'd expected," admits a source at Airtours, which is now dangling carrots including thousands of guaranteed first child free/second child £1 deals for peak season. It has also extended its Adult Saver programme, scheduled to end in January, for another month, increasing the saving per adult from £50 full board to £100.

JMC Holidays also has bargains, with up to 50 per cent off selected holidays if booked by the end of February. Of course the situation could change overnight. If it does, and bookings pick up, a dwindling pool of holidays could spell gloom for anyone who hasn't snapped up their fortnight in the Med. What you will gain by booking now is choice and a discount. "If you want to travel peak season to a particular destination book now or be disappointed," urges a JMC insider.

There are plenty of villas still up for grabs. Meon Villas reports strong demand and is not discounting for early booking, yet admits it still has properties to sell through the peak period of late July and early August. For example, two weeks in Menorca, at Villa Santo Tomas in the sandy south-coast resort of Santo Tomas, can be had for £912 per person, based on six sharing, including two cars and flights departing Gatwick on 29 July.

But overall the message for families is: don't leave it - unless you wish to visit a less popular resort such as the Costa Dorada, Costa Brava, Tunisia and Egypt. These will be the late booker's best bet. Additional reporting Tom Otley.

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