Hot hits from Broadway

MOVIN' OUT

When and where? 18 April, Apollo Victoria.

What is it? A two-act ballet from American director-choreographer Twyla Tharp to the music of America's favourite piano man, Billy Joel, himself a five-times Grammy winner.

Form back home: Caused a sensation on Broadway where it ran for three years, winning two Tony Awards, for choreography and orchestration.

London chances: In a city where the dance musicals Fosse and Contact both flopped, much will depend on finding a star to match Broadway's wildly charismatic John Selya, recruited from the world of ballet, and a London cast that can make this dynamic show sizzle as it did on Broadway.

Tharp's dance company has been a draw several times over at Sadler's Wells but her West End pulling-power is so far untested: the London run, sensibly, is a limited engagement (until 17 July). James Fox, star of BBC

Fame Academy 2004, has been signed up to croon Joel's music (the 24 songs include Uptown Girl and We Didn't Start the Fire) from an on-stage piano.

AVENUE Q

When and where? June or July, Albery Theatre.

What is it? Sesame Street with sass.

Form back home: An off-Broadway transfer to Broadway that has shown surprising staying power, albeit in one of the smallest theatres. It trumped the expected winner, Wicked (see below), to Best Musical in the 2004 Tony Awards.

London chances: Avenue Q began small in New York and grew from there, an opportunity denied it in London when an out-of-town try-out at the Theatre Royal, Stratford East, was aborted. The creative team, including producer Cameron Mackintosh in London, is said to be cleverly anglicising the show for the West End, where some aspects (including a joke at the expense of George W Bush) should play even better than in New York. The score includes numbers with titles such as Schadenfreude, which should appeal to those who have been wishing elsewhere - all too often in vain - for witty lyrics.

WICKED

When and where? 27 September, Apollo Victoria.

What is it? The musical version of Gregory Maguire's 1995 novel telling the back story of The Wizard of Oz, focusing on how the Wicked Witch of the West became so mean.

Form back home: A commercial juggernaut second-to-none, grossing in excess of $1.6 million on Broadway during Christmas week alone. Some sniffy critics haven't had much impact on the fate of the lavish production, especially beloved, it seems, of young girls, who turned the original co-star, Idina Menzel, into a Broadway icon. Three 2004 Tony Awards, including costumes and sets; the score lost, however, to Avenue Q.

London chances: Very strong, especially since the creative team plans to beef up the political parable in a story that many Broadway audiences saw simply as musical theatre chick-lit. No word yet on vital London casting.

MONTY PYTHON'S SPAMALOT

When and where? 2 October, Palace Theatre.

What is it? The musical version of Monty Python and the Holy Grail, directed by Mike Nichols, who has been a Broadway and Hollywood mainstay for more than 40 years. Tim Curry played well as King Arthur in the lead, which, somewhat surprisingly, Simon Russell Beale has now made his own.

Form back home: Three 2005 Tony Awards, including Best Musical.

London chances: Interest has been keen since the show's first try-out a year ago in Chicago, where it was touted as the next Producers (though Spamalot's reviews weren't as uniformly ecstatic). Not every Broadway musical steeped in things British makes it on home turf - and one wonders whether the musical pastiches of Andrew Lloyd Webber will appeal in the city of, well, Andrew Lloyd Webber. On the other hand, Nichols' and Python alumnus Eric Idle's showbiz savvy is not to be discounted.

CAROLINE, OR CHANGE

When and where? Mid-October, National Theatre's Lyttelton.

What is it? A grown-up musical about race relations in 1963 Louisiana, and about as different from Spamalot and Wicked as it is possible to be.

Form back home: From its off-Broadway inception, late in 2003, the show has divided critics and audiences with its story of the relationship between the black maid of a southern Jewish family and the young son whom she looks after. Admirers have cheered its richness and sweep (the Jeanine Tesori score is a marvel), its anger, and its deep, abiding power. Director George C Wolfe is as good as the American theatre gets. Six 2004 Tony nominations but only one award, for supporting player Anika Noni Rose.

London chances: Fiercely uncommercial, Caroline has the perfect London home at the National, not least because its author is Tony Kushner, the American co-writer of the new Spielberg film, Munich, and author of the National's trail-blazing production of Angels in America.