The real Oscars winners

The nominated films are the response to the administration from the mostly liberal, Left-leaning Hollywood film community. If it has come to it a little later than other media, that's because it takes longer to make movies.

It's not only the five best picture nominees that take pot shots at the tenets of the Bush brigade. Other multiple-nominees include Leftist pieces such as Syriana (corruption in the oil trade), The Constant Gardener (unscrupulous pharmaceutical company practice in Africa) and Transamerica (a parent in search of a sex change).

Perhaps most provocative is the frontrunner for the best foreign language film, Paradise Now, concerning two Palestinian suicide bombers, the first ever nominated film from Palestine.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences, whose 6,000 members vote on the Oscars and which stages the event itself, at Hollywood's Kodak Theater, is understandably nervous about television ratings for this year's show.

With broadcaster ABC, the Academy sells $50 million worth of advertising during the three-hour live broadcast (averaging $1.7million per 30-second commercial slot), but fears are that if lack of public interest leads to a ratings fall this year, that revenue will surely be less next year.

In 2005, 41.5 million Americans watched the show on ABC, up from the very low 33 million in 2003 but down from the 55.2 million viewers who tuned in to see Titanic sweep the board in 1998. Compare that to the 90 million who watched this year's Superbowl and you can see that the Oscars never galvanise the nation the way that sporting events do.

The Academy is taking precautions, spending an unprecedented amount on TV advertising of Sunday's show to protect the Oscar brand. "We're doing what any good marketing organisation would do to get its message out," said Sid Ganis, president of the Academy, recently. "Of course, we want the ratings, so we're pumping it."

The choice of host is always a factor in the show's success and this year the Academy has opted for an Oscar-virgin, Jon Stewart, a household name in America, whose Daily Show With Jon Stewart is a highly popular political commentary comedy programme. The uncompromising Stewart is famously Left-wing and has never been afraid of duking it out on TV with Right-wingers such as Bill O'Reilly.

"It's going to be the most controversial Oscars ever. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole country tunes in," Stewart told Larry King optimistically on CNN last week. "I'm sure I'll make reference to politics, but I am not going to go out there looking to blow the place up. I think the quota is six gay cowboy jokes."

As to whether the gay cowboy movie will win, some pundits Stateside are suggesting that older Academy voters will feel more comfortable giving the big prize to Crash with its woolly, humanist message rather than endorsing the sexual politics of Brokeback.

Brokeback is experiencing a backlash predictable for any film that has so far won every best film award going - from the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival last September to the Bafta last week.

Crash also won points on the prenomination campaign trail when distributor Lionsgate committed several million dollars to send out 130,000 free DVDs of the film (including the entire 111,000 membership of the Screen Actors Guild). The results could be gauged immediately, when Crash beat Brokeback to the ensemble cast prize at the SAG Awards.

Although upsets are not uncommon at the Oscar ceremony, a Brokeback snub is, however, unlikely, since it is by far the best-reviewed and most well-liked of this year's films - an unquestionable choice for best picture, if you like - whereas Crash has proved popular only in certain camps. Politics and homophobia aside, Academy members tend to know the best picture when they see it.

Mike Goodridge is US editor of Screen International. The 78th Annual Academy Awards is live on Sky Movies 1 from 12.05am on Sunday night.