Tony Travers: Boom city and the real battle for our boroughs

This Thursday’s London borough elections matter, arguably more so than the European elections on the same day. With an average population of 265,000, the boroughs are powerful authorities whose strengths and weaknesses matter to those living or working in the capital.

The position of town halls has changed. It is 50 years since the first borough elections, where councils were merged to form the councils we know today: so, for example, Willesden and Wembley joined to become Brent. In the intervening century, London has seen its population fall sharply and then rise towards an all-time high.

The boroughs were last fought on general election day in 2010, which meant there was a turnout of more than 60 per cent, helping Labour. This year, with turnout closer to 30-35 per cent, the party will be at a relative disadvantage. But polls also suggest a swing from both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to Labour since 2010.

Some boroughs are solid for one party. The Conservatives hold Kensington & Chelsea, Wandsworth and Westminster in a vice-like grip. Labour dominates Newham, Lewisham and Hackney. Hammersmith & Fulham is tipping towards the Tories, while Barking, Dagenham, Southwark and Lambeth look secure for Labour this year.

Ealing, by contrast, has bounced between Labour and the Conservatives. Recently Redbridge, Croydon, Harrow and even Barnet have become more Con-Lab marginal than before, with Labour gaining ground. Meanwhile, massive owner-occupied development is helping the Tories get a growing foothold in Tower Hamlets, unthinkable when the boroughs were first created.

There are also mayoral races this year in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham and Tower Hamlets. While the first three will be easy Labour wins, the fourth is a bitter contest between incumbent Independent Lutfur Rahman and Labour’s John Biggs.

The big unknown is Ukip. The party’s vote performance in previous London elections suggests its best hopes will come in Havering and Barking & Dagenham. But however well Ukip does in the European elections, it is likely to find it harder to win council seats in London and other English cities than it has previously in rural areas.

Counting will take place overnight in 12 boroughs and on Friday in the remaining 20. Bexley, Enfield and Redbridge will be good early indicators of shifts between Conservatives and Labour. They may also tell us something about Ukip’s propensity to gain ground in London. Meanwhile, Richmond will show how the Lib-Dems are faring against the Conservatives.

Most local parties are fighting on local issues. Which leaves one largely invisible question: what do the parties offer to Londoners to deal with the biggest future challenge, the city’s massive population expansion? By the time of the next borough elections in 2018, there will be perhaps 400,000 more people living in the capital. Some councils are pro-growth, others less so. Either way, population growth cannot be ignored: that will be London councils’ real challenge beyond this Thursday.

Tony Travers is director of the London School of Economics’ LSE London research centre