Evening Standard View: The great return to the office has stalled

The great return to the office appears to be stalling, if the latest passenger data from Transport for London is any guide. TfL had forecast that journeys would rise by 6 per cent in 2024/25, following an increase of 9 per cent in 2023/24. However, commuter numbers have grown by only 1.1 per cent in each of the last three months, compared with the same period last year. If current trends continue, it might be said that the capital has found a new normal.

This is bad news for TfL. The slower return to offices means it has a £16 million deficit, and is facing a £150 million shortfall in projected income over the financial year. Meanwhile, its operating surplus has been revised down by more than £100 million. This puts even greater pressure on a service that in other times might be able to reinvest into expansion and repairs. Not least on the Central line, with its unreliable carriages, or the Bakerloo line extension. The lack of footfall, particularly on Mondays and Fridays, also creates huge problems for businesses paying high rents in the expectation of a steady flow of commuters.

There are multifold factors driving this slowdown in traffic, and it is not all a Covid hangover. For example, lower annual wage rises received by younger Londoners - a cohort more likely to travel than older people - may be a factor too. Meanwhile, many people value the flexibility of working from home, while in a tight labour market, many businesses feel they have to offer such packages.

Still, we should not be surprised if London's transport network fails to expand and renew if people are less keen on using it.

For some stories, the figures barely scratch the service. That is the case for those on a NHS waiting list, some of whom endure daily pain, unable to work or simply live life to its fullest. These people are more than a number on a spreadsheet.

More than 1.2 million Londoners were awaiting treatment in the capital at the end of August. That is a rise of nearly 8,000 on the month before. In other words, things are continuing to get worse. Little wonder that Sir Keir Starmer is making fixing the NHS a top priority.

This morning, the Government launched a consultation on the future of the health service, which it calls “the biggest national conversation about the future of the NHS since its birth”. The reality is that if Labour can achieve only one thing in office, it would probably choose to fix the NHS. That will require substantially greater funding, first and foremost to clear the intolerably long backlog.

But the NHS requires more than urgent surgery. It needs capital spending on new and updated hospitals, machinery, medicines, and incorporating technologies such as artificial intelligence to boost health outcomes. Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, has been unsparing in his diagnosis, suggesting that the NHS is “broken”. The task of fixing it is must begin now.