Paul Goodman: Why even Boris Johnson can’t be sure of his next move

David Cameron wants to see more of Boris Johnson. He needs London’s Mayor out and about with him in the long general election campaign which has already begun. But he also wants to hear a great deal less about Johnson — in particular, about whether the Mayor will or won’t be standing for Parliament himself by the time that election comes.

The guesswork about constituencies that Johnson might apply for simply won’t go away. Two weeks ago, the focus of attention was Uxbridge, where Sir John Randall is standing down. Last week, it was once again Richmond, where there has long been speculation about Zac Goldsmith vacating the seat for Johnson. Goldsmith all but ruled such a move out. There are suggestions that Sir Malcolm Rifkind in Kensington might leave the Commons, and that Johnson could replace him. Every vacancy sparks a rumour.

The key to understanding the Mayor’s intentions is his unwillingness to serve under Cameron. The more he believes Cameron will be Prime Minister after the election, the more unwilling he is to return to Parliament. And the more he believes Cameron won’t return to Downing Street, the more likely he is to seek a constituency in which to stand, in order to fight the Conservative leadership contest which would be almost certain to follow that event.

The coming election is the hardest to call in modern times. And the Mayor’s colourful persona conceals a cautious personality. Furthermore, he hates being put under pressure: his instinct in such circumstances is to dig in. And as if these calculations were not convoluted enough already, there is another complication. The General Election takes place next year, the mayoral contest the year after.

There is no insoluble difficulty about serving simultaneously as London’s Mayor and as an MP — after all, Ken Livingstone did so. Johnson surely could not act both as London’s Mayor and the Leader of the Opposition. So if elected Tory leader he would have to leave City Hall. But he has promised to serve out his mayoral term. How can even a politician of his legendary inventiveness square that circle?

The Mayor’s inclination is to put such knotty decisions off altogether. That of his former colleagues in the media is to put him on the spot. If he has not made his intentions clear by the time of the Conservative Party conference, these tensions will explode. He will be harried, hounded, pressed about his plans.

The conference itself, which is planned to be an election platform for Cameron, could be knocked off course. Johnson has a track record in disrupting Tory conferences. He did so in 2009 — another pre-election conference — when he supported a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. He did so again in 2012, when he was mobbed on arrival at Birmingham.

Johnson was invited to Chequers recently. Cameron will certainly have raised the matter of the Mayor’s intentions. Johnson may have dug his heels in. Or he may have assured Cameron that he will have made an announcement by conference. A sudden retirement announcement by Rifkind this summer, a swift selection and a Kensington berth for Johnson looks the most likely development.

But no one can know the Mayor’s intentions for sure — perhaps not even Johnson himself.

The author is the editor of ConservativeHome.