Unleashing nationalism has made the future of the UK the central issue

Natasha Pszenicki

19 January 2021

The worst evening I spent in Downing Street? Easy: September 18, 2014, sitting in the small wood-panelled dining room in Number 11 with David Cameron; eating a tepid curry; waiting for the results of the Scottish referendum. We thought: are we the people who have lost Scotland? History allows for no recovery from a disaster like that. Ask Lord North, the prime minister condemned for all time for the loss of America. The mistake he made — and with Irish calls for home rule a century later — had been to assume that doing nothing was an option. Our referendum was a proactive plan to keep the United Kingdom together — and it looked like it had put Scottish nationalism back in its box for a generation.

Not any more. By unleashing English nationalism, Brexit has made the future of the UK the central political issue of the coming decade. Northern Ireland is already heading for the exit door. By remaining in the EU single market, it is for all economic intents and purposes now slowly becoming part of a united Ireland. Its prosperity now depends on its relationship with Dublin (and Brussels), not London. The politics will follow.

Northern Irish unionists always feared the mainland was not sufficiently committed to their cause. Now their short-sighted support for Brexit (and unbelievably stupid decision to torpedo Theresa May’s deal that avoided separate Irish arrangements) has made those fears a reality. It pains me to report that most here and abroad will not care.

Scotland is an altogether different matter. Its history is our history. Its contribution to the world through its literature and philosophy, exploration and art, is our contribution. Its departure — with no disrespect to the Welsh — would represent the end of the United Kingdom. The rest of the world would instantly see that we were no longer a front-rank power, or even in the second row. We would instead be one of the great majority of countries who are on the receiving end of the decisions made by a few, subject to the values of others. We would become another historically interesting case study in how successful nations can perform unexpected acts of national suicide.

So how can Boris Johnson avoid this disaster — and ignoble title of the worst prime minister ever? For every poll shows consistent support now for independence. The Government has two plans. The first is to win more Scots over to the virtues of the Union. Press officers are being hired especially to make the case. We did something similar seven years ago, opening a Treasury office in Edinburgh and badging UK projects with a little Union Jack.

That made little difference; what it did was hold the Scottish National Party to account for the devolved decisions on things like tax we handed over to them. But now the Edinburgh and Glaswegian middle-classes who shied away from the risks of independence in 2014 are recalculating. For what is riskier? Being in Brexit Britain, or becoming independent and rejoining the EU?

Those who want to keep the UK together need to respond with new, powerful arguments against separation. After all, hasn’t the EU negotiations shown Scots that the whip hand lies with the larger, more powerful bloc?

Surely SNP claims of easy trade deals, frictionless borders and a rosy future for Aberdeen fishing and Edinburgh finance can now be easily demolished? If leaving a loose union with European nations after a mere 50 years has caused such division and debilitation, imagine the trauma of sundering an intense 300-year-old union with those we share this island with.

But there’s a problem: this Brexiteer premier can’t say any of this. So what’s the second plan? Simple. Refuse to hold a referendum. It’s the only sure way you won’t lose one. Yes, the SNP will be in full cry — but so what? Domestic opposition has already evaporated, with the Labour leader there resigning last week.

As Tony Blair says, no one has been able to mount a fight since Ruth Davidson left the stage. There’s a risk that the Scottish government holds its own plebiscite — but that won’t be legal, and the courts will stop the arms of the Scottish state, like the police and civil service taking part. Ask the jailed Catalonian leaders how their illegal poll worked out. The only way you can have legal path to independence is through a referendum that is voted for by the House of Commons. So don’t vote for one. Whatever the provocation. Just say no, Boris, and save yourself a long anxious night in Downing Street.

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