Matthew d'Ancona: David Cameron goes to the brink over EC presidency

The PM’s opposition to Juncker’s old-style EU could isolate him and force him to recommend a British exit

In happier times: Jean-Claude Juncker and David Cameron in previous discussion — but no longer

25 June 2014

The nations were caught in a trap … a trap from which there was, and has been, no exit.” Thus concludes The Guns of August, Barbara W Tuchman’s classic account of the outbreak of the First World War.

Tomorrow, EU leaders will gather in the evocative setting of Ypres to mark the war’s centenary — and to scramble for the exit of a different kind of international trap. After much diplomatic badgering, David Cameron has secured a formal vote on the nomination of Jean-Claude Juncker as the next President of the European Commission. Much depends upon the outcome — not only the identity of José Manuel Barroso’s successor as kingpin of Brussels, but also the trajectory of the EU and Britain’s prospective place within it (or outside it).

Cameron objects fundamentally and implacably to Juncker’s candidacy. After 19 years as prime minister of Luxembourg, the contender is steeped in the flabby, outdated ideology of EU integration and the lazy assumptions that have set Brussels dangerously at odds with the people it is meant to serve. He personifies the old-boy network and oligarchic back-scratching that have so tainted the reputation of the EU. The idea that Juncker is what Europe needs in 2014 would be laughable were it not so tragic.

Speaking of the old-boy network, it is mildly embarrassing for Cameron that Poland’s foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, a fellow member of the Bullingdon Club from his Oxford days, should turn out to have such withering views of his EU policy. Sikorski is a man to be reckoned with: clever, ambitious and connected. As a former Oxford undergraduate, he is also friendly with many senior Tories.

So his expletive-rich attack on Cameron in transcripts of secretly taped conversations has certainly been noticed at Number 10: the British PM, Sikorski asserted, has “f----d up” his EU strategy, indulged in “stupid propaganda” and tried to appease Eurosceptics by “feeding them scraps … just as I predicted”.

It is true that Cameron has a domestic audience to worry about. But so do all 28 heads of government in the EU. Angela Merkel’s handling of the nomination has been dictated by the politics of her own coalition government. The German Chancellor — Cameron’s closest ally on the world stage — initially declared, on May 27, that she wanted a “broad tableau” of candidates for the Commission presidency. But Merkel was outmanoeuvred at home and — barring an 11th-hour diplomatic coup — will back Juncker in Ypres.

This leaves Cameron horribly isolated. Before the Brussels summit in December 2011 at which the PM vetoed the EU fiscal pact, Sir Jon Cunliffe, his adviser on Europe and global affairs at the time, warned him: “It is the one form of negotiation where you will be completely alone.” Cunliffe meant that his boss would not be surrounded by an entourage of aides and advisers. But, for a British Prime Minister, that operational solitude is often matched by the diplomatic variety.

All this matters deeply for two inter-related reasons. First, the battle over Juncker’s nomination is a battle to decide where authority truly lies within the EU’s institutions. Previously, the Commission’s president was chosen by the European Council — which is to say, by the elected heads of government of member states. The Lisbon Treaty of 2007, however, is unequivocal that the president “shall be elected by the European Parliament”. The treaty is much less clear on the reformed role of the council in this process.

To put it politely: European jurisprudence has not evolved to a point of clarity on this point. To be more candid: the system is a mess. In Strasbourg, the matter is regarded as settled. The EPP, the main centre-right grouping in the Parliament, secured the most seats in last month’s European elections and has put forward Juncker as its nominee. C’est tout. But Cameron believes that the final decision must rest with the member states into whose lives, laws and regulations the next Commission President will plunge his busy fingers. This is why the PM insisted on a formal vote. He is seeking not only to veto Juncker but to tame the ambitions of the Strasbourg Parliament to claim pan-European sovereignty.

Second, Cameron’s campaign to thwart Juncker’s appointment is a trial run for the EU strategy he formally unveiled in January 2013. Understandably, the Bloomberg speech is remembered for the PM’s promise of an in-out referendum in 2017. No less important, however, was Cameron’s desire to recommend continued membership of the EU, after the renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with Brussels.

Until now, this has been the assumption upon which the PM and his team worked. On Monday, however, Downing Street declined pointedly to rule out the possibility that, in the end, Cameron might have to recommend Britain’s departure from the EU. Which was to imply: if the rest of them want Juncker, is this really a club that we want to stay in? This is bold brinkmanship: some would (and do) describe it as reckless conduct. It will be distinctly awkward for Cameron if, as seems likely, the first significant test of his EU strategy ends in defeat and isolation.

Then again: it does no harm to show his counterparts that he means business, though the heavens fall. Cameron does not want Britain to leave the EU. What is too easily forgotten (because it is so rarely stated) is that the EU does not want Britain to leave, either. This country is a major net contributor to its coffers, supplying military power, diplomatic muscle, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and a trans-atlantic bridge to the innermost counsels of Washington.

“Brexit” might be a trauma for Britain — but, in an age of competing power blocs, it would be a disaster of perception and reality for the EU. In their craven endorsement of Juncker, Cameron’s fellow heads of government are bringing that disaster a little bit closer. Could there be a more fitting venue than Ypres to mark Europe’s undimmed talent for self-harm?

Matthew d’Ancona’s In It Together: The Inside Story of the Coalition Government is published by Penguin tomorrow, updated with new chapters

Matthew d'Ancona: David Cameron goes to the brink over EC presidency

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