It is time for Boris Johnson to ditch those who took him to the ball

What fun the old Boris Johnson would have had with scotch eggs. How his newspaper column would have lampooned the debate in Whitehall over whether eating one constitutes the “substantial meal” that in London allows you to order a pint (or 10). If he was still Mayor he’d have made sure there was a photograph of him in a pub tomorrow chomping on the bar snack, beer in hand. Skirting on the edge of the rules, causing a headache for those in authority,with his mischievous grin, the photo would have proclaimed: I am the leader of the resistance. Instead, of course, he is now the one making the decisions, trying to explain to rebellious MPs why scotch eggs might be fine but apparently a lone pasty is not.

That’s the Johnson paradox. For someone who spent their whole life seeking the premiership, he still doesn’t look fully comfortable being in charge. The amusing language and cultural allusions that once entertained after-dinner audiences — comparing escaping lockdown to the “last barbed wire” in the Great Escape or the vaccine to the “bugle-blasting” arrival of the Prussians at Waterloo — feel too unserious when delivered from the prime-ministerial podium. In short, Johnson is discovering that people don’t see the joke when you’re the boss.

It’s a version of the journey that most occupants of Downing Street make, slowly discarding the garb that got them there. In the next 10 days Johnson has to make two further steps along that road, and neither will be easy for him.  The first is breaking with his former parliamentary supporters in the vote today on the new Covid tiering system.  The Prime Minister is not new to parliamentary rebellions. As a backbencher last year, he led some of the largest in our history against his predecessor to bring her down. As a new premier he ruthlessly purged other backbenchers who made the mistake of thinking they could follow his example with the same impunity he had enjoyed. This will, however, be the first major rebellion since his election victory and this time the rebels look suspiciously like the gang that got him into office: a motley crue of ERG trouble makers, local populists, and ex-ministers hoping for a change in the weather. If there were ever a faction of Johnsonites, this was them. That’s presumably why there’s no talk of whips being withdrawn or sanctions imposed, although any newcomer who joins them in the voting lobby won’t be getting a job anytime soon.  

Keir Starmer’s weak decision to abstain helps with the softly, softly approach — because there’s neither the threat of defeat nor the opportunity for the Opposition to exploit the high ground. Nevertheless, experience tells us that once the habit of rebellion is formed it only grows. It comes at the same time that Vote Leave dilettantes have left Downing Street, replaced by an impressive trio of experienced civil servants. Welcome to high office, Prime Minister.  

The imminent necessity of concluding a Brexit deal is the second moment for Johnson when the reality of power bites. As someone whose first job in government was in the former Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, it doesn’t surprise me that fishing remains the last obstacle. For 50 years our coastal communities were sold the lie that their decline was only because the EU Common Fisheries Policy stopped them taking as much cod and hake out of the sea as they liked. So it’s going to be hard to explain to the few remaining trawlers that we still have to work with other sea-faring nations, and there will still be quotas to retard the global decline in stocks. But needs must.  

The Brexiteers have already disappointed the farmers who supported them with the predictable news that their European subsidies won’t be fully replaced. Brexiteer bravura that Brussels would be bound to grant “equivalence” or “mutual recognition” to the City has been busted. Meanwhile Northern Ireland is getting ready for the checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea they were told would never exist, and all businesses are being warned today that frictionless trade with the continent will end even with a deal. But without a deal, the Bank of England Governor tells us the economic damage would be worse than that caused by the pandemic. So Johnson must abandon the promises to the fishermen too, and sign. When he does it will be further proof that — to adapt the American political phrase about taking a date to a high school prom — Johnson is no longer “dancing with the ones who brung him”.