An Obama win could backfire on Israel

As Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu delivers his speech at the United Nations General Assembly today, the tensions between him and President Obama remain palpable — and puzzling. There are, after all, no disagreements between them about Iran’s nuclear programme. So why is it that they have almost come to blows over this very issue?

For Netanyahu, Iran is an existential threat. For years its leaders have vowed to annihilate Israel, while arming Lebanese militia Hezbollah to the teeth. Unlike the US, Israel is well within range of Iranian missiles and does not have the military reach to deal a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear programme. From Netanyahu’s point of view, Obama risks exposing Israel to a nuclear-armed Iran simply because he is too busy getting re-elected.

But in order to influence the US president, Netanyahu has been widely accused of interfering in US politics in an unprecedented manner. Last week it was revealed that Netanyahu is featuring in a Mitt Romney campaign TV ad in Florida, warning against the current US policy on Iran.

The spat flared earlier this month when it was claimed that Obama had refused to meet Netanyahu during the Israeli’s current American visit — the first time he has travelled to the US without meeting the President. The news, denied by Washington, was conveniently leaked in Jerusalem, embarrassing Obama and pitting him against the pro-Israel Romney campaign and the mainstream US Jewish vote. The latter are considered potentially decisive swing voters in November.

A second leak followed, this time from Washington, begrudgingly detailing an hour-long late-night reconciliatory phone call from Obama to Netanyahu.

The fact that the first story was leaked suggests that Netanyahu was counting on the negative reactions of Republican hawks towards Obama. Washington’s subsequent leak about the phone call suggests that calculation was correct.

The political meddling is exacerbated by the long-standing links between Netanyahu and Romney. These began in the Seventies, when the two were colleagues at Boston Consulting Group.Today, they even share the same financial sponsor — Sheldon Adelson, an American-Jewish casino magnate. Adelson provided support for Netanyahu in the 2009 Israeli elections and is reputed to be among Romney’s top donors.

Netanyahu’s point-scoring against Obama risks causing irreversible long-term damage to the US-Israel relationship. Moreover, if Israel launches a pre-emptive strike on Iran without US authorisation, as mooted by hawks in Jerusalem and Washington, this would inevitably harm American interests in the region.

And even if Israel does not launch a strike this year, Americans are increasingly aware of the disproportionate power of Israel and its lobbying groups on US foreign policy. The UK’s former ambassador to the US, Sir Christopher Meyer, observes in his memoir, DC Confidential, that the only two Washington-based foreign lobbies with any clout are the Israelis and the Irish.

If Obama is re-elected, Netanyahu’s interference in the election may well turn out to have swung US Democrats away from their erstwhile ally.

* Inna Lazareva is a journalist and political analyst based in Tel Aviv.