Revealed: Up to 50,000 licensed UK venues ‘may stay stay shut post-lockdown’ as tier restrictions bite

Cheers for the partial return of the UK hospitality sector were dampened today by a major industry report which forecast up to 50,000 licensed venues may not reopen as lockdown is replaced by the Government’s local tiers system.

The market recovery monitor by analysts CGA found just 2% of licensed venues in England are in the least restrictive Tier 1 areas, with 39% under Tier 3, which sees pubs banned from opening except for takeaway and delivery services.

The rest - including London - fall into Tier 2, where alcohol can only be sold with a “substantial meal”, and under which the report suggested a third of operators will potentially be unable to trade at a profit.

The report said: “Combined with Tier 3 businesses, it means that more than 50,000 licensed premises in England may not open their doors this week.”

Its findings were reflected in the capital’s response to the easing of restrictions.

Jonathan Neame, chief executive of Britain’s oldest brewer Shepherd Neame, which owns and operates 319 pubs across London and the South-East, said just six of the group’s 28 central London sites were opening today. Neame said the other pubs are not reopening “as trade levels are too low and there will be no ‘normal’ Christmas trade”.

Greene King said 83 of its 87 London pubs that were trading pre-lockdown will reopen, including 39 in the West End and 44 in central London.

Clive Watson, chairman of City Pub Group, said 16 out of the firm’s 22 London sites will reopen today. He warned even the sites opening will be hit financially.

He said: “A number of pubs that are opening are doing so on limited opening times — say after 5pm meaning we have effectively lost 40% of capacity.”

Young’s boss Patrick Dardis said around 95% of his London pubs are reopening in an effort to “save the great British pub”, but that he expected “to burn cash under these restrictions”. 

CGA's Karl Chessell said the report's new figures "illustrate the catastrophic impact of the government’s restrictions on hospitality’s ability to trade".