Russell Lynch: Surprise Opec oil cut could leave the Bank feeling sore

And, unusually for the cartel — notorious for bending the rules on their own production cuts — its members have actually been holding the line.

A six or nine-month extension to the present regime is the expected outcome. But some reckon that there’s a chance that the Saudis could push for an even deeper cut this week.

That would help Opec in its aim to bring down the world’s outstanding oil stocks to their five-year average more quickly. But conveniently it would also help to support prices ahead of the world’s biggest float — the looming $2 trillion (£1.54 trillion) launch of Aramco, the Saudi Arabian state oil company.

That float needs to be a success to help the desert kingdom clear its budget deficit and for the Saudis, it must be a huge tempter if they can pull off deeper cuts without losing market share to US shale producers.

Analysts at Nomura think Opec could “surprise the complacent bears” with exactly this move, forecasting Brent crude — at present $54 a barrel — at $60 by the end of this year and up to $70 in 2018. Then throw in a recovering global economy, which the International Energy Agency believes could leave daily oil demand around a million barrels higher than global supply between July and September, and you’re building a decent bull case.

Some market participants obviously agree after a 5% jump in oil prices last week, but what’s good for the Saudis and Opec isn’t great news at home.

The Bank of England edged up its inflation forecasts this month and predicts a “challenging” year for consumers. Drivers are already paying 10% more for their petrol than last year.

So the last thing Threadneedle Street needs is a sudden oil price spike wrecking its predictions yet again — both intensifying the squeeze on shoppers’ wallets and increasing the pressure on rate-setters to tighten policy just as Brexit talks get under way.

If Opec does spring a shock production cut, this week’s Vienna gangbang will leave the UK economy feeling particularly sore.