Viva, Las Vaccine: Covid biotech firms hitting the big time with shares up 1,000%

Russ Mould, from AJ Bell, said: “There are still a lot of ifs, buts and maybes to overcome with regard to the Pfizer vaccine and the others under development. 

"What investors need to be doing is preparing their portfolios for multiple outcomes, giving themselves some protection on the downside in case things go wrong and leaving scope for profit on the upside if things go well.”

Here we look at some of the most promising listed candidate vaccines now in advanced trials and expected to inject continued optimism into the markets in the coming weeks.

Moderna - mRNA-1273

Background: Went from computer design to human study in three months. Phase 3 trials began in July, with more than 30,000 participants signed up by October. Early phase 3 report published November 16 showed 94.6% efficacy.

How does it work: Synthetic mRNA hijacks cell machinery to produce a copy of the ‘spike’ protein on Covid-19’’s coat, provoking an immune response.

For: Results showed 94.5% efficacy in both young and elderly adults. No early indications of any safety issues. It can be stored at 2C to 8C for up to 30 days and stored in standard freezer temperature of -20C for six months. Has $2.48bn backing from US government.

Against: No mRNA vaccine has ever been approved, and none has been manufactured at scale. At around $35 a dose it is the most expensive candidate. Around 78% of the 12-month 1 billion target has already been sold to the US and the EU.

Target: Working with Swiss manufacturer Lonza to produce 500million to 1billion doses a year. 

Pfizer, BioNTech - BNT162

Background: BioNTech has been working with Pfizer on a flu vaccine for more than a year when Covid emerged. It quickly changed feet, and was the first to report late state trials with a better-than expected 90% success rate.

How does it work: Uses synthetic mRNA to provoke an immune response.

For: Pfizer’s experience with mass-market vaccines helped speed the development process to 10 months.

Against: Questions remain over whether the vaccine prevents spread by asymptomatic carriers. Trials are yet to establish how well it works on children, the elderly and those from different ethnic groups.

Target: 100m doses in 2020, 1.3bn in 2021

Market reaction: After rocketing to $112.76 hours after its November 9 update, shares have fallen back dipping to $93.92.

University of Oxford, AstraZeneca

Background: Researchers at Oxford University working on a vaccine for MERS, a close cousin, and were well placed to pounce when China published Covid-19’s gene sequence in January.

How does it work: A non-replicating viral vector, which delivers the antibody-generating spike protein to cells using a virus which infects chimpanzees.

For: Phase 1 trials were underway by April and AstraZ soon climbed aboard, doing the groundwork for the manufacture of hundreds of millions of doses. Backed with US $1.2bn; CEPI $383m; Gavi $367m, and UK, $80m

Against: Studies were put on hold in September after a participant in the study suffered an unexplained illness. They were given the green light to continue 6 days later and are expected to report latest trial results in the next few days.

Target: 2 billion doses.

Novavax - NVX-CoV2373

Background: Eighteen months ago, Novavax faced being delisted by the NASDAQ as its  shares plunged below $1 on the back of two failed vaccine trials. It sold two factories and cut more than 100 jobs. Now, its share price is nudging $90 and it has hired more than 300 new employees on the back of its early involvement with the Covid vaccine backed with $12.6billion from the US Warp Speed project.  

How does it work: Moth cells are harnessed to make the virus’ spike protein, which is then extracted and injected into cells alongside an adjuvant to boost the immune response.

For:  Novavax's candidate showed strong results from its phase 1 trials with 100% of participants developing antibodies with no serious adverse effects. Results of phase 3 results, being held in Blackpool in the UK,  are due out early next year.  Novavax has secured preorders for 276 million doses from governments in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Australia. 

Against: Novavax has not brought a vaccine to market in 20 years. Senior executives have sold tens of millions of dollars of stock since its share price began to soar this summer.

Target: 100million doses by late 2020, 2 billion doses in 2021

Sanofi/GlaxoSmithKline

Background: The two drug-making giants joined forces in April, with Sanofi providing protein-based vaccine technology and GSK contributing its immune-boosting adjuvants.  

How does it work: It uses the same recombinant protein-based technology as one of Sanofi’s seasonal influenza vaccines.

For: First human studies began in September with initial results expected in the new few weeks which it hopes will support the initiation of a Phase 3 trial in December 2020. The use of the adjuvant means a stronger vaccine can be produced  at lower cost, and potentially stimulate a longer-lasting reaction. The firms have agreed to supply 200 million doses to developing countries.

Target: 1 billion doses by mid 2021

Janssen / Johnson and Johnson - JNJ-78436735

Background: J&J’s Belgian subsidiary Janssen’s candidate uses a weakened human common cold adenovirus to deliver genetic instructions for making the coronavirus’s surface spike protein. The same virus forms the backbone of a recently approved Ebola vaccine.

It has already undergone smaller phase 1 and 2 trials, and interim analysis of a single-dose study suggests that it induces a robust immune response and is generally well-tolerated. Assuming it proves safe and effective in larger trials, 30million doses could be made available to the UK by mid-2021.

Other candidates

In China, CanSino Biologics was the quickest off the blocks with its vaccine approved for military use in June. But progress has slowed as a collapse in case numbers in China forced it to look to Russia and Pakistan for further trials.  Side effects forced researchers to scrap the highest dose. Research suggest people immune to the adenovirus used to deliver the vaccine have a reduced response.

Sinovac, which uses a more traditional weakened virus to create its antigen - in the same was as hepatitis A, flu and rabies jabs, is going through Phase 3 trials in Brazil and Indonesia, but a report issued in August suggested it produces antibodies  at lower levels than more modern techniques.

Sinovac is listed on the Nasdaq but trading has been suspended since 2019 following a dispute with an activist investor.

In Russia, Gam-Covid-Vac now none-too-subtly renamed Sputnik V,  and EpiVacCorina have both been granted regulatory approval although since neither has entered phase 3 trials,  concerns about their safety and efficacy remain.