No-deal Brexit could cost Britain’s luxury industry £13bn

Failure to strike a trade deal with the EU could cost the UK’s luxury sector around £13 billion in lost sales over the next five years, according to industry forecasts.

Trade association Walpole, which counts Burberry and Mulberry among its members, projects at least £65 billion in the value of sales by 2024 under an optimistic scenario which sees a close relationship with Europe and easing trade tensions.

But its pessimistic no-deal scenario puts sales at as low as £52 billion, according to Frontier Economics research commissioned by Walpole.

The luxury sector here is now worth around £48 billion, up from £32.2 billion in 2013. Further growth is expected in the optimistic scenario, as demand for British-made goods rises, and new entrants expand.

Helen Brocklebank, the boss of Walpole, praised the “exceptional” growth since 2013. She urged the government to swiftly sew up trade agreements and to avoid a no-deal Brexit which could hit export volumes. The chief executive added that political certainty would encourage UK businesses to commit to expansion.