House prices in London to fall within three months, say surveyors

Northern Ireland, where property values are still some way off their pre-financial crisis highs, recorded the biggest proportion of surveyors reporting price gains, with 83% of surveyors there seeing prices rise rather than fall, followed by the South East, where a balance of 74% of surveyors reported price growth.

A balance of 26% of surveyors from across the UK expect property values to rise rather than fall over the coming three months, almost halving from a balance of 46% the previous month.

Rics said that across the country, the growth in demand for property from potential buyers has fallen back to its slowest pace since the start of 2013.

At the same time as demand becoming more subdued, the supply of properties coming to the market is on the increase for the first time in six months, Rics said.

But despite the level of demand from buyers and the supply of homes for them to choose from starting to become more balanced, demand is still outpacing supply, which is helping to keep an upward pressure on prices.

Stricter mortgage lending rules have been applied across the industry since the end of April under the Mortgage Market Review (MMR).

The rules mean that people wanting to buy a home or remortgage have to undergo more detailed questioning about how they spend their money, to make sure that they can afford their mortgage repayments.

The Bank of England has also recently announced new curbs for the mortgage market, saying that loans of 4.5 times a borrower's income or higher should account for no more than 15% of new mortgages issued by lenders.

The Bank also said that lenders should ensure that borrowers can keep up their mortgage repayments in the event of a rise of up to 3% in interest rates over the first five years of the loan.

The Bank had been dropping hints that further tweaks could be taken to curb riskier mortgage lending in the weeks before the new curbs were unveiled.

Speaking in May, its deputy governor for financial stability, Sir Jon Cunliffe, said the housing market is the "brightest" of the blinking warning lights that the Bank monitors.

Bank governor Mark Carney's recent Mansion House speech recently prompted a fresh wave of speculation about the possibility of interest rates rising sooner than expected.

Financial information website Moneyfacts recently said it has seen signs of lenders increasing the rates on the cheapest fixed-rate mortgage deals on the market, which it has put down in part to expectations about the base rate moving off its historic 0.5% low.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Rics, said: "The Bank of England's recent introduction of a ceiling on high loan to income lending and a 3% interest rate stress test is unlikely on its own to have an immediate influence on the market.

"However, rhetoric from key officials at the Bank, including Mark Carney, alongside the consequences of the introduction of the MMR are already slowing momentum, particularly in London."