Jim Armitage: Our EU exit will shape us for decades so don't rush into it

Another blow for the Brexit gloomsters. Not only have we had manufacturing and retail sales figures coming out strongly post the referendum, but today brings evidence mortgage lending held up nicely last month.

Meanwhile, general borrowing by consumers and businesses was also up on June.

It seems the great British public is far less worried about Brexit than some (pink-hued) parts of the media.

However, I hate to be a killjoy, but it would be mad to draw any longer-term economic conclusions at this early stage.

Much of the lending data showing up in the surveys over the next couple of months will be skewed by housebuyers and businesses who postponed their borrowing decisions before the referendum.

Having seen interest rates fall in the aftermath, and the sky not fall down on their heads, they will have pushed the borrowing button in July and August.

This pent-up demand will take a few months to flush out of the numbers, so it won’t be until autumn at the earliest that we get a picture of the state of the economy.

Even then, the relevance of how we’re faring in this phony war period before the actual Brexit, is limited.

The type of Brexit we get will dictate the shape of our economy for decades to come.

The full-on exit in the dreams of John Redwood, Iain Duncan Smith and other hardliners would clearly have a more disruptive impact on the country than the soft departure one presumes Theresa May favours.

Sir Martin Sorrell says this uncertainty is a business killer. He says companies want the PM to press on rapidly with the Brexit negotiations so, good or bad, at least we know what we’re getting.

From the bosses I’ve spoken to, it’s not quite so clear cut.

Some do favour a rapid deployment of Article 50, but others say it’s more important to get our negotiation positions right first.

As one retail bank CEO put it, fishermen, farmers, fund managers, factory owners all want something different from Brexit.