Investors could push for Hammerson's break-up, says Russell Lynch

Hammerson boss David Atkins went shopping at Brent Cross with his mum when the centre first opened in 1976, but the chances are that he’ll be pushing 60 before the extension to north London’s shopping hub is finally open.

The 52-year old’s decision to “defer” the £1.4 billion project looks like good sense in the current climate of caterwauling retailers, administrations and rent-slashing CVAs but investors will be looking askance at the rest of the strategy he unveiled today.

Let’s not forget Atkins had some work to do here after one of the most humiliating corporate retreats in recent times, when it abandoned its planned merger with Intu and even told its shareholders to vote against a deal it was proclaiming from the rooftops just weeks earlier.

And the key question for investors is: is there a near-term route back to the £5 billion, 635p a share offered by French raider Klépierre in the winter?

Realistically the answer looks like no: the giant collective “meh” in the share price today, up just 2p to 528p and a whopping 32% discount to its net assets, will only reinforce in many investors’ minds the conviction that they should have taken the “jam today” on offer from the French a few months ago, despite the sweetener of today’s £300 million share buyback.

Hammerson’s net asset value, a key property metric and usually line one of any property company’s results, is buried in these numbers and was flat at 776p today, and rental income is down 3%.

Hammerson’s focus on “must-visit” premium outlets like Bicester Village and its bigger shopping centres looks sensible, as does the shift away from structurally challenged department stores and high street fashion.

But the concern has to be with the increased £1.1 billion in disposals, including its struggling retail parks. In a market when, only this week, Hammerson has sold two assets at a 10% discount to book value and buyers can see hundreds of millions more coming down the track, how hard a bargain is he going to be able to drive for those?

Atkins might well argue that the deals are value-accretive to a heavily discounted share price and that he might be able to use the money better elsewhere, but how long will it be before the investors, including Paul Singer’s activists Elliott, see the benefits of that?

Maybe instead they will look at the much higher returns of the premium outlets and instead push for a break-up or woo Klépierre to bid again in October. As shown by the consolidation wave among struggling shopping centre owners late last year, scale is everything and Klépierre owns 100 shopping centres across Europe.