TUI, which continues to offer winter holidays for 2017-18 in Sharm, says it is keeping the situation under review, with a notice online warning holidaymakers of the Foreign Office advice — and a promise to contact them if the advice changes.
But Thomas Cook’s decision to pull Sharm holidays might not dim demand for Egypt as a whole.
In fact, the operator is launching two new flights a week from Birmingham and Gatwick to Marsa Alam, a resort further south down the Red Sea that offers kitesurfing and diving among sea turtles.
A Thomas Cook spokesman says: “Egypt has been very popular this year. We’re expecting more than double the number of UK customers compared with last year, over 150,000 bookings. We put on more flights for the winter season just gone and for this summer to keep | up with demand.”
In Europe, meanwhile, summer bookings are likely to be up 10% when the operator reports next week, compared with a 5% fall on 2015 posted this time last year.
Demand is trickling back for holidays to Turkey, which accounted for a fifth of Thomas Cook’s capacity two years ago, before bookings fell off a cliff, hurt by terrorism in Istanbul, concerns over the war in Syria and a failed military coup in Ankara.
Cook says tourists are returning, and easyJet is also expected to report returning confidence in Turkey when it gives half-year results next week. By contrast, TUI argues there has been a “further shift” away from Turkish trips.
Mandi Tindall from Ashtead, Surrey, will return to Kalkan on the coast of Turkey next month, regardless of warnings. She has visited the Mediterranean fishing town six times in the past nine years.
“In this current day, I feel anywhere can be unsafe but we will not be put off from carrying on as normal. We had friends who were there last year and said it was very quiet and rather sad for the local businesses,” Tindall says.
Holidays in the western Mediterranean have soared in price as tourists choose Spain, Portugal and Greece over terrorism-hit destinations. The weaker pound could also encourage some people to return to the cheaper destinations.
Danny Cox, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, points out that there is more than simply geopolitical risks troubling the package holiday industry.
The rise of travel-tech companies such as Airbnb and online travel agents like onthebeach.co.uk, as well as a squeeze on spending due to stagnant incomes and rising inflation, are creating headaches.
“Tour operators are facing increasing competition home and abroad from the likes of Airbnb, and geopolitical tensions and the risk of terror attacks are far more of a deterrent than the fall in the value of sterling,” Cox adds.
“That said, the package holiday is not necessarily the first thing that goes when inflation starts to bite into household spending.”
The sun may be shining in the Med, but clouds still hang over the travel industry’s giants.
