"It's also possible that a labour market recovery may be further endangered by the latest spike in infection rates in various states. In the US, demographic data from the Center for Disease Control shows that new cases in May and June are skewing towards those that are younger, rather than towards the older portion of population as seen back in April and in months prior.
"While daily stock market volatility in recent weeks may be influenced in part by the rising number of cases, the overall trend in stocks seems more closely aligned with deaths than new cases.
"A second wave of deaths could in turn lead to a second wave of decline for the economy, corporate earnings and the stock market. Watching the number of deaths, rather than new cases, will be critical for investors in the weeks ahead."